Fantasy Baseball Rookie Rankings

I’m big on Fantasy Baseball Keeper/Dynasty Leagues, therefore I’m a sucker for rookies. Quite simply, there is no better way to build your team for the future. Stock up on some young talent, trade it off for a shot at a 2014 Fantasy Baseball championship, or get the ‘next best thing’ and build for a dynasty. Depending on your Keeper/Dynasty rules, you could find yourself with quite the bargain.

There are a few rookies who many (myself included) thought would be high on this list at this point in the season. There are also a few surprises and a names we were anticipating would get the call to the show and make it on this list.

The Astros called up two bright spots in their future, more so George Springer than Jon Singleton, but both have made an impact in Houston and in Fantasy Baseball. The Pirates finally called up Gregory Polanco and it made the Bucs a better team as they find themselves in the middle of a battle for the NL Central.

A week ago it was a coin flip for the top spot. What is it that you want? Hardly any walks and a ton of strikeouts or a whole lot of POP! Because that’s what Masahiro Tanaka and Jose Abreu have brought in their first years in North America. That all changed with the recent injury to Tanaka and if he does need Tommy John surgery his stock will drop even further.

1. Jose Abreu, 1B, Chicago White Sox

Home runs are tough to come by in Fantasy Baseball. Did you draft Chris Davis early in round 1 hoping to solidify that category? You are not alone. Abreu is crushing it in his first season and has a chance to touch 55-60 bombs by the end of the year. Without a stint on the disabled list Abreu may have cleared 60 home runs and 130 RBI.

Among first-year players in the #ASG era, Jose Abreu’s 28 homers, 48 extra-base hits and 192 total bases are the most for a first half.

— MLB Stat of the Day (@MLBStatoftheDay) July 10, 2014

Jose Abreu’s 28 homers through his first 78 career games tie him with the @Tigers Rudy York for the most in history.

— MLB Stat of the Day (@MLBStatoftheDay) July 10, 2014

Abreu will be a top five pick next season, and I can see an average over .300 as he gets used to North American pitching.

2. Billy Hamilton, OF, Cincinnati Reds

Coming into the season there was a lot of talk about how Billy Hamilton would hit below .260 and only steal you bags. A not uncommon viewpoint: don’t bother drafting him because you can find steals elsewhere and although that is true, Hamilton has brought much more to Fantasy Baseball than SB’s. The average is close to .300 right now, but it most likely won’t be by the end of the season.

I had the luxury of keeping Hamilton for a 19th round this year and obviously that is big time value, but if you grabbed him in the 5th or 6th round, he has been worth the pick. Yes he is fast. FanGraphs shows us just how fast! Let’s watch Billy Hamilton Make a Run Happen. Did he really just tag up from there!? Hamilton is seeing the ball a lot better too. His OBP was .636 in April, .652 in May.848 in June and is .858 in July.

Most total bases, last 4 weeks: JD Martinez 77 Mike Trout 63 Billy Hamilton 60 <—- WTF Jose Abreu 59 Matt Adams 58 Ian Kinsler 57 — High Heat Stats MLB (@HighHeatStats) July 9, 2014

Billy Hamilton has more RBI this season that Matt Kemp, Mike Napoli, Jason Heyward, Dustin Pedroia, Shin-Soo Choo, Hunter Pence & Joe Mauer

— Matthew Pouliot (@matthewpouliot) July 8, 2014

It didn’t look good to start the season as Hamilton had struggled with the stick, but he has really come around in recent months and should be able to keep it going. I would consider drafting Hamilton early in the second round of redraft leagues next season and he makes for a fantastic keeper!

3. George Springer, OF, Houston Astros

I was as excited as anybody about George Springer. I had him on my Fantasy Baseball team last year, just hoping the Astros would give him the call. He didn’t get it, but turns out he was worth the stash if you played in a Keepers/Dynasty league or even if you stashed him in a redraft league this season. Springer exploded on the scene and went on a stretch with a home run in seven straight games. Springer is full of power.

That homer by George Springer was 445 feet, the fifth-longest in history of Minute Maid Park. The #Astros have a monster with his power. — Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) July 1, 2014

Springer has 19 home runs heading into the All-Star break. He has seven over the last 30 days, Abreu has 10. Springer has 30-30 written all over him as he came only three home runs shy of becoming the first 40-40 man in the minors in about 60 years. The stolen bases haven’t been there in the majors just yet with only five in 74 games, but I’m confident that will change as he gets more comfortable.

One thing we figured is that his strikeout percentage would be high. It was high in the minors, it’s high now. In fact his 33.2 K% is the highest in the bigs. 50 RBI and 44 runs in 76 games, makes up for the poor rate and weak .233 average though.

4. Gregory Polanco, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

Much like Springer, Polanco impressed us when finally getting the call to the show with hits in 10 straight games. Both Springer and Polanco are fantastic in the field, but the one thing that separates the two is Springer’s power. Polanco only has three home runs in 146 plate appearances and he wasn’t much of a power hitter in the minors with only 16 two years ago playing single A ball and only 13 last year over AA and AAA.

With that said Polanco may be the better all around player, it’s just sometimes that doesn’t translate in Fantasy Baseball. Polanco has solidified himself as the Pirates lead off man. In 32 games, he has a .260 batting average with 23 runs and six stolen bases. His strikeout rate is only at 19.0 percent and has has a 12.7 percent walk rate, which is just what you want from a leadoff man.

Gregory Polanco has reached base safely 47 times in his first 27 career games, most by a #Pirates player since 1949.

— Ace of MLB Stats (@AceballStats) July 9, 2014

5. Masahiro Tanaka, SP, New York Yankees

Tanaka being at 5 has absolutely everything to do with the recent news that he’ll miss six weeks with a partially torn UCL in his elbow. I originally had him one spot behind Abreu because it’s just a matter of power over pitching for me. Tanaka brought his 24-0 record with a 1.21 ERA from Japan to New York and he continued to have his way with batters going 6-0 in his first eight major league starts. His first loss in 42 starts came against the, wait for it…Chicago Cubs! It was his second start against Chicago and his second start against Baltimore and Boston also resulted in losses.

The numbers show hitters are adjusting to Tanaka a second time around as he started the season with 11 wins and a sub 2.00 ERA. Heading into the All-Star break Tanaka (12-4) has a 2.51 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. He also sports 9.39 K/9 and 1.32 BB/9. Both solid. The former Golden Eagle brought 13,000 innings with him from Japan since age 18, a span of seven years. He threw at least 150 pitches in a game seven times last year and threw a 15 pitch save in Game 7 of his championship run a night after tossing a 160 pitch complete game loss.

All of that worries me in Fantasy Baseball Keeper/Dynasty Leagues. Add that to the fact that he is pitching every five days in America compared to every six or seven days that he was used to in Japan. Tanaka has a total of 1,444.1 innings pitched as a professional. That is the 4th highest in the league among active pitchers through their age-25 season. He is also throwing the split-finger fastball 25 percent of the time, more than he did in Japan. That is a lot of stress on the elbow. He may just need some time, but I was worried before and I’m certainly worried now.

6. Yordano Ventura, SP, Kansas City Royals

Ventura hasn’t been spectacular, but he hasn’t been bad either. He started off great having allowed only six runs over his first five starts. Three of his first six outings were scoreless showings and then Fantasy Baseball owners received a scare. Ventura left a start against Houston with lateral elbow discomfort, but tests revealed the injury was minor and he would only miss one turn through the rotation.

Ventura doesn’t seem to be bothered one bit now, as he is still throwing as hard as 103 mph deep into ball games. That’s another thing, the knock on Ventura was that he couldn’t put in a full seven innings. Well, He has pitched at least seven innings in four of his last six starts. I wouldn’t worry about him getting shut down as KC manager Ned Yost said earlier in the year he expected 200 plus innings from Ventura. The flame thrower has 101.2 innings pitched under his belt and 11 of his 17 outings have been quality starts. He reps a 3.28 ERA, 7.52 K/9 and a 2.74 BB/9. Steady as she goes for Ventura, with some upside in the second half.

7. Marcus Stroman, SP, Toronto Blue Jays

Marcus Stroman seems like the type of guy to secretly check twitter during the game — Richard Lee-Sam (@RLeesam) July 12, 2014

Hope he checks Fantasy Sports Locker Room and my Fantasy Baseball Rookie Rankings because he’s in there. I won’t lie to you Stroman, I’ve only seen you pitch twice, both coming against L.A. and it didn’t go so well. Sat behind the Angels dugout when he came out of the pen and was roughed up for six hits and four earned runs over 1.2 innings. In Stroman’s last start he gave up eight hits and five earned runs. Also against the Angels. However, it’s what has happened between those two outings that puts Stroman inside the top 10 Fantasy Baseball Rookies Rankings the rest of the way.

First of all, after a second poor bullpen showing, Stroman found a spot in the Jays’ starting five. Eight starts and he’s allowed more than three runs only once, which was his last start in Anaheim. He allowed three runs or fewer in six of those eight starts. He allowed only three hits, struck out seven and blanked the A’s over seven. Stroman also struck out seven over six allowing only one earned run in a start against St. Louis. Two teams that have the potential to get ya.

Stroman doesn’t qualify with other starters in most statistical categories, but his numbers are still impressive. A 7.93 K/9 and 2.19 BB/9 over 53.1 innings. His 48 GB% would be inside the top 30 in the majors if he had a few more innings. The ERA will come down as he pitches more.

8. Nick Castellanos, 3B/OF, Detroit Tigers

I’ll admit, I thought Castellanos would be much better in his first year. Truth is, he hasn’t been all that bad, I just had high expectations for him, especially after his wicked spring. Didn’t anyone ever tell you that spring means nothing!? Yes, I heard that before, but I failed to listen.

Castellanos has a .261 average with a 27.0 line drive percentage, which is the 6th highest in the majors. A number that shows he is seeing the ball well at the plate and I think it’s only a matter of time before things start to come around for the third baseman. His .322 BABIP is the lowest of anyone with a 27% line drive ratio or better, suggesting that he is due for a few more of those liners to fall in during the second half.He will remain in the lineup everyday and that Tigers lineup is still very potent.

9. Brock Holt, 1B/3B/OF, Boston Red Sox

In a scenario that no one predicted before the season, Brock Holt ranks ahead of Xander Bogaerts in our list of 2014 rookies (Photo: Ezra Shaw/Getty Images).

It’s hard to believe Xander Bogaerts is left out of the top 10, and Brock Holt is inside it, but Holt has been the better rookie this season and is in line for a better second half. Holt is third among rookies in hits, only 11 behind Billy Hamilton‘s league leading 95. Holt has 76 fewer at-bats than Hamilton and 65 fewer than Abreu who has 94 hits. Holt hasn’t seen his average dip below .300 since May 30th and he isn’t showing any signs of slowing down either with a 26.7 line drive percentage.

Holt finished off the first half of the season by going 5-for-6 with a home run and two runs. The 26-year-old conjures memories of last year’s Bo Sox who got magical performances from unexpected players. Holt has a .327/.371/.463 slash line and while the average may not stay that high, it shouldn’t drop all that much. He looks to have a permanent spot atop the Red Sox lineup, now all Boston needs to do is find away to get him home as they have had issues scoring all year. You can also plug Holt in at 1B, 3B or OF which helps his fantasy value.

10. Jake Odorizzi, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

Odorizzi has moved up the rankings over the past week or so. He’s certainly caught my attention with his swing and miss stuff – he has a 10.34 K/9 over 101. innings. It’s a tad higher than his 8.98 last year over 124 innings in AAA.

Odorizzi has allowed three runs or fewer in six straight starts and two runs fewer in five of those six outings. The SP was acquired from the Royals in the James Shields trade. Add in Wil Myers and more consistent play from Odorizzi and you have yourself a pretty solid return for Shields. Odorizzi is just starting to be picked up in leagues.

11. Collin McHugh, SP, Houston Astros

Believe it or not McHugh is still considered a rookie having only pitched 21.1 innings with the Mets back in 2012. I felt like he was around longer than that. Despite five straight losses and a trip to the DL, McHugh is a solid Fantasy Baseball option. He has allowed more than three runs only once in his last nine starts and has a wicked 10.17 K/9 in 82.1 innings with a solid 3.28 ERA. McHugh is owned in fewer than 30 percent of Y! leagues and it’s probably because he plays for Houston. He has slowed down quite a bit, but should still be rostered.

12. C.J. Cron, 1B, Los Angeles Angels

California Cron earned himself a spot in the Angels lineup with his power and to be honest, a .150 batting average from Raul Ibanez didn’t hurt Cron’s cause. C.J. has nine home runs in 176 plate appearances. Small sample size, but that’s a home run every 17 at bats and if you were to accumulate that over a full season, he would flirt with 30 homers. He reminds me a lot of Mark Trumbo in his first couple seasons in Los Angeles and he was a 30 home run guy. Cron has that potential and that makes him a top 15 1B the rest of the season.

13. Taijuan Walker

Our Jon Collins told you last week to hang on to the M’s pitcher despite Seattle sending him down to the minors. He is expected to start twice before getting the call back up to the show. Walker has allowed only 10 earned runs in five career Major League starts dating back to last season. Last season across AA and AAA, Tanaka posted a 2.93 ERA with an impressive 10.2 K/9. He is capable of bringing those numbers to the bigs.

14. Kevin Kiermaier, OF, Tampa Bay Rays

Another leadoff rookie on this list and it’s Kiermaier who has been impressive through his first 158 at-bats. He has a .310/.349/.575 slash line with 49 hits, 24 RBI and 8 home runs in 48 games. The pop is kind of a surprise as Kiermaier only had three homers in 143 at-bats in AAA this season. He had six last year in over 500 at-bats between AA and AAA. He’s always been around a .300 hitter through his minor league career.

Kiermaier is in the middle of hot streak with 11 RBI in his last seven games. He’s the 65th best Fantasy Baseball player over the past 30 days in Y! leagues because of the his recent run. Kiermaier is fantastic with the glove too, so he should have plenty of playing time in the second half. Expect his numbers to come back down to earth a bit, but we can’t ignore his start in the show.

15. Xander Bogaerts, 3B/SS, Boston Red Sox

Bogaerts is too talented to be left off this list. I would have never imagined having him outside the top 10 at this point in the season, let alone at 14. Bogaerts has a disappointing .235/.311/.348 slash line. There has even been talk about sending him down to the minors, to get his game back. Although, Boston doesn’t have the depth at short or third. Stephen Drew has been awful and Will Middlebrooks has been sidelined since mid May.

Of course there is a chance that X gets sent down (though the Red Sox have said this isn’t in their plans), but as of right now he is getting playing time and it can’t get much worse for the 21-year-old. Bogaerts ranks fifth in hits among rookies despite the poor average. He had a stretch where he had hits in 15 of 22 games and had his average up to .304 to start June. Safe to say he’s in a rough stretch.

Keep an eye on

Kolten Wong, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals

Some really believe in Kolten Wong…

Another homer for Kolten Wong tonight, and it came from the No. 2 slot in the lineup. Last call. You want this guy.

— scott pianowski (@scott_pianowski) July 12, 2014

Five home runs and three steals in seven games this month since being activated from the dl. The speed is real, but the power I don’t think is for real. Wong had one homer over his first 233 plate appearances in the bigs. And all I can think of when I hear his name is how he was picked off at first base in the World Series. With Carlos Beltran at the plate!

It really may haunt him the rest of his life, nonetheless he was a Fantasy Baseball sleeper to many out there and after a slow start it’s hard to ignore this recent run. He is a great source for speed.

Didn’t make the cut

Jon Singleton, 1B, Houston Astros

Singleton has the power Cron has but strikes out 35.7% of his at-bats, which is a horrible rate. His .200 batting average is just as bad. Singleton has Adam Dunn written all over him. He shows patience at the plate sometimes with his 11.1 percent walk rate, and then there are times, more often than not, where he does a lot of swinging and missing. His 16 SwStr% is the 15th highest in the bigs. He’ll need to be more patient at the plate and lay off the breaking stuff. I don’t care for Singleton the rest of the way, you could do better.

2014-15 Fantasy Baseball Dynasty/Keeper Rankings

Obviously Mike Trout would rank number 1 on this list if we were including everyone in the bigs, but instead this is a Dynasty/Keeper ranking for rookies and prospects. Things have changed since the start of the year.

1. Jose Abreu (1B, White Sox)

2. George Springer (OF, Astros)

3. Billy Hamilton (OF, Reds)

4. Gregory Polanco (OF, Pirates)

5. Oscar Taveras (OF, Cardinals)

6. Kris Bryant (3B, Cubs)

7. Javier Baez (SS, Cubs)

8. Byron Buxton (OF, Twins)

9. Xander Bogaerts (3B/OF, Red Sox)

10. Masahiro Tanaka SP, (Yankees)

11. Archie Bradley (SP, Diamondbacks)

12. Miguel Sano (3B, Twins)